Jumat, 23 Desember 2011


In cases where the economic conditions tip the balance of any economy to one side, investing becomes problematic and also uncertain. An economic cycle that poses a threat to the confidence and standing of all investors, is the deflation. Underwriting, that is estimating a risk is very difficult to come up with the best investments for deflation, one needs to be creative and analytic.

Economic deflation is an economic cycle or a stage where the general price levels decline, which is caused as a result of reduction in the supply of money and all kinds of credit (debts and loans). The cycle is characterized by a stage where a single dollar becomes very valuable. In the short run or for the initial stages of the deflationary cycle, the prices that down tend to have a positive effect on the economy. However as the deflation progresses or prolongs, it can have a negative effect on the economy, which is known as deflationary spiral.

During deflation, since, the value of money increases, the general demand in the market goes down, which brings down the rate of supply. A decreased supply, means a decreased rate of production, which eventually leads to stagnation of all the economic activities of the world. This cycle, makes the hunt for investing options during deflation very much difficult.

Where to Investment During Economic Deflation

The best investments during deflation should be thoroughly researched and need to be unique. Here are some leads...

Buying Assets
This is the best of all strategies. In the initial phases of deflation, the strategy is to exploit the drop in the level of prices. In such a case, buy some assets such as furniture, electronics, etc. This process of buying assets, should be however controlled and one should not blow the life savings on them. Apart from that, make sure that you buy the assets in the initial phases of deflation. Purchasing assets is the best low risk investment.

Precious Metals
The price range of metals depends upon the demand and supply forces for the metals. During deflation however, the demand falls as a result of the lack of sufficient economic activity, leading to the fall of gold prices. One can purchase this gold and sell it later on, after the economic conditions improve. Apart from trading the metal itself, gold mining, stock investing and SPDR Gold Fund can also become great investments and can be sold at a hefty price at a later stage. Apart from gold investment, silver investments, purchase or pearls and diamonds can also prove to be profitable.

Energy Resources
In cases where one wants regular returns, investing in energy can become the best investment option. In such a case, the returns will be assured as the demand and supply for energy is rarely affected by deflation. Stocks of energy companies if purchased at a perfect timing, can yield a genuine profit upon sale, once the economic conditions get better, these stocks can be sold at a handsome profit. Energy resources are very good for long-term investment.

Emerging Market
In accordance with the spiral effects, the economic growth and development comes into a certain stage of stagnation and the interest rates drop down. The offshore emerging markets in such a situation tend to show an upward projection of economic growth. In such a case, foreign direct investments tends to be more profitable.

Other Instruments
There are other kinds of investments such as bonds, fixed annuities and insurance polices, which have a guaranteed return on investment or (ROI). Investing in such financial plans gets a certain (read: not very exorbitant but satisfying rate of return) rate of return that is of course assured. However avoid investing in mutual funds or any plans, instruments, policies and bonds, that subject you to any market risk and index.

The best key to exploit the deflationary cycles is to invest at low-cost points that are bound to go up and then sell the same at a higher price.

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